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Oil drops back below $50

Written on April 9, 2009

Oil fell nearly $2 a barrel Tuesday, tracking U.S. stock market losses ahead of what is expected to be a miserable first-quarter earnings season, while the market eyed another rise in U.S. crude inventories.

U.S. light crude for May delivery settled down $1.90 at $49.15. London Brent crude settled $1.02 lower at $51.22.

U.S. stocks fell as earnings for S&P 500 companies were expected to fall by 36.7%, according to ThomsonReuters data.

Crude oil prices have been closely tracking the fortunes of broader markets as investors look for clues as to when oil demand might rebound.

U.S. aluminum company Alcoa Inc. (AA, Fortune 500) will kick off the results season after the Wall Street close Tuesday with an expected second consecutive quarterly loss, spelling out continued weakness in world energy demand.

"I think the road to recovery is a long one, and while we await a recovery, global oil demand will be weak," Bache Commodities broker Christopher Bellew said.

Little upside is expected from weekly U.S. inventories data due Tuesday and Wednesday, with oil analysts predicting yet another increase in crude stocks because of high import levels and weak demand from domestic refiners.

The global recession has cut oil demand around the world, with consumption expected to be curbed for the first time since the early 1980s.

The world’s top energy forecasters are likely in the coming days to reduce again their projections for world oil use this year, after big revisions in assumptions about global growth, but these cuts may be the last faxless payday loan online.

Strength in the dollar against a basket of other currencies also weighed, as commodities prices in the U.S. currency become more expensive for overseas investors.

The resumption of oil flow through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline also pressured prices.

Oil flow through the pipeline, which carries more than a fifth of Iraqi crude to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, had resumed Monday, a source at the Turkish pipeline operator told Reuters.

U.S. inventories

An expanded forecast of 13 analysts called for a 1.9 million barrel rise in crude stocks, which are already running at a 16-year high, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Gasoline stocks could fall by 1 million barrels, and distillates by 0.2 million barrels, mainly due to lower refinery production. Demand may have dipped too, analysts added.

The American Petroleum Institute will release its report Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. ET, while the EIA - whose data is generally seen as more comprehensive - releases its report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Oil prices have gained roughly 40% since mid-February as equities markets rose and OPEC producers cut output, though oil’s gains have been limited by continued weak global demand and rising inventory levels. 

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