[ Content | View menu ]

Brito woos Anheuser-Busch InBev investors

Written on September 17, 2009

When Carlos Brito, chief executive of Anheuser-Busch InBev, speaks in public, it’s usually because something big is afoot. Last week, Brito showed up in Boston at a conference organized by Barclays Capital to argue that the world’s biggest brewer is on top of its game.

The occasion: Anheuser-Busch InBev’s stock is about to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The wooing of investors has begun in earnest — complete with presentations, lunches, beer tastings and one-on-one sessions with executives.

Brito is scheduled to ring the opening bell this morning, ushering in the trading day and the revival of "BUD" on the stock exchange.

Last week, Brito touted some of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s main achievements, making the case that the company can cut costs while managing big, valuable brands, according to a slide presentation posted on the company’s website. A transcript of the presentation was not released.

Anheuser-Busch InBev has unprecedented market power among brewers. As Brito’s talk delineated, the Belgian company accounts for 50 percent of the beer sold in the U.S., 43 percent in Canada, 67 percent in Brazil and 74 percent in Argentina.

"They’re very good at managing businesses that have big, powerful market shares," analyst Rob Mann of Liberum Capital said recently. "They’re very good at taking every last dollar."

One rap on InBev has been that it struggles in markets where it does not have a dominant position — markets such as Russia and the U.K.

Shrinking sales in Russia have been a black eye for Anheuser-Busch InBev for a while, and the company continues to lose market share. "Russia has been a disaster story for them for a long time," said Mann.

Still, there are success stories. As Brito pointed out, the company has reversed Stella Artois’ five-year slide in the U.K.

From 2003 to 2007, market share for the beer — one of InBev’s global brands, brewed since 1366 — fell from 10.5 percent to 8.6 percent. The brand was in big trouble, dogged by a perception that it was a cheap and unsophisticated beer. But Stella’s market share has now climbed back to 9.4 percent.

Meanwhile, "Brazil is firing," said Mann. "There’s more good than bad."

Things are not all rosy free credit report without a credit card. Big brewers including Heineken, Molson Coors, SABMiller and Anheuser-Busch InBev are seeing their beer sales weaken as economic slackness shifts consumers’ priorities. In response, the companies have relied on cost cutting and price hikes.

Anheuser-Busch InBev has not been immune to economic pressures, analysts say. But its global reach helps it manage through the choppy waters.

Anheuser-Busch InBev is laying into its debt load, driving down its ratio of debt to earnings to 4.2 from 4.7 since the end of 2008. In other words, it’s paying off debt, and quickly.

"The banks are satisfied — very satisfied — with how management is generating cash flow," said analyst Gerard Rijk of ING. Rijk argues that the stock — at about $46 — appears cheap, based on valuations of other consumer goods companies and projections of financial performance over the next two years.

Brito’s presentation laid out the progress being made on the company’s key commitments.

Anheuser-Busch InBev earlier promised that it would capture $1 billion this year in "synergies" from InBev’s purchase of Anheuser-Busch. In the first half of the year, it achieved $610 million in savings.

It committed to sell off $7 billion in assets to pay down debt; it has announced $3.8 billion in sales so far.

It wants to reduce "capital expenditures" by at least $1 billion this year; it reduced that spending by $566 million in the year’s first half.

Anheuser-Busch InBev wants to maintain its "pricing discipline" — not cutting prices to chase sales. So far, so good: Its revenue per barrel is up 5 percent.

All that data adds up, and it makes for an impressive graph showing the company’s widening profit margins. They have gone from about 25 percent in 2004 to 36 percent this year.

"Over time, we’ll see whether they’re successful in this integration," said Morningstar analyst Ann Gilpin, who argues that InBev overpaid for Anheuser-Busch and is a risky investment. But even with those reservations, she conceded that she "wouldn’t doubt the will of Carlos Brito."

Source

Filed in: business.

Comments closed